Around the time the Fed stunned markets with its 5pm Sunday emergency bazooka intervention, Goldman was holding an emergency conference call in which some 1,500 clients and companies dialed-in, making the comparisons to “Lehman Sunday” especially apropos.
For those wondering, here’s what Goldman Sachs told 1500 clients on Sunday; they said, here is the bottom line:
- 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it’s very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
- 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
- Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
- The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
- Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
- Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
- There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load
The post Here’s What Goldman Told 1,500 Clients In Its Emergency Sunday Conference Call appeared first on We Are Change.
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